Technologies That Will Change The Future Faster Than One Thinks

The premise of the whole book is that the dozen different technologies in the pipeline - are going to converge and revolutionize the world like never before. The author starts off with the example of how one technology “internet” alone changed the whole world. And then he goes on to imagine how much the world can change from these upcoming technologies.
This coming together of these technologies at the same time is what he calls “convergence”.

The technologies he mentions are as below accompanied by my understanding/take - 

• Digital Payments

• Along with depreciation of cash I include Blockchain as well in this category. Doing away with cash definitely has its own advantage in reducing corruption and having a trail. Benefits of digitization outweigh the cons in my view! But on top of that Blockchain technology adds its own advantages. 

• Having a decentralized ledger which is immutable in itself is a great step above.
  
  

• Artificial Intelligence

• The term has lost its significance because of how much it has been used loosely by companies and everyone. But it still doesn’t diminish its potential.

• For example - A smart-assistant which can take care of things for you keeping in mind your preferences and other things seems too good to be true but that is the long term goal. Yes, it can be eerie in some aspects but will be very handy.
  
  

• Drones/Robots

• Great use in terms of last-mile delivery and other aspects too like medical and rescue missions excluding military uses which is their own can of worms.
  
  

• Space Economy

• Now it is well obvious why it’s important for humans to be interplanetary species, the side benefits are very important as well. In the course of making space travel safer, cheaper and accessible - eventually we will master suborbital travel technology as well. This can reduce the current time to fly via planes from one part of the world to the other. I think this milestone will be crossed much earlier and will have far-reaching effects.

• And we haven’t mentioned electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles yet! Flying taxis in layman terms.

• Imagine the impact on real estate when one can commute to work 100s of miles away in a matter of minutes and then back.
  
  

• CRISPR/Gene-editing

• Many diseases are caused by gene corruption aka genes are the source of it.

• Through this technology, the idea is to repair those genes once and for all and cure the disease. It can also ensure the disease stops being hereditary. The potential is much more than that - theoretically one can design babies by laying down their characteristics like height, IQ, eye color etc. Here it becomes a moral issue.

• Worth mentioning though that silencing a gene has effects which are not well-understood yet. For ex-  function of a gene is different in a liver v/s in other organs. But nonetheless, lots of companies are working on therapies and research happening on it.
  
  

• 5G

• This one is easy to explain. Faster internet helps in so many ways especially when we are going to have Internet of Things (IoT) i.e every device working with an internet. 

• Also, in certain areas which are in difficult terrain it is hard to lay down infrastructure for communication. There are ambitious projects to beam the internet down to those areas from the sky (space). With that everyone is now connected and can have access to information.
  
  

• Precision Medicine

• This field is about designing medicines and dosage specific to every individual. The same dosage isn’t ideal for everyone. With the advent of this field, we can have medicines designed specifically. Also, also have medicines which are so “smart” that they go in your body and work only on those areas/regions which they are supposed to.

• 3D printing

• "3D printing" can refer to a variety of processes in which material is deposited, joined or solidified under computer control to create a three-dimensional object, with material being added together (such as plastics, liquids or powder grains being fused together), typically layer by layer.

• It can be revolutionary as you can now customize any part and reduce the time to make any product. 

Overall, all the above technologies are quite revolutionary in themselves and with all converging at the same time they are going to have a profound impact. But if I were to rank the sectors most likely to change, they are - 

1. Transportation

2. Real-estate

3. Healthcare

4. Insurance

5. Shopping/Entertainment

The book in itself is a good primer and confirms the belief that the world is on a cusp of huge change. Imagining it is both exciting and a bit terrifying as how everything will shape up. But change has always been inevitable! 

20 lessons from the 20th Century

This thin book by Timothy Snyder is a pocket book version of things citizens should do to make sure democracy survives as world over democracy seems to be be under assault and ideas like free speech, liberty and equality are being chipped away gradually. I heard about the book on Trevor Noah's show and was quite impressed to later find out that the author can speak 11 languages!! No wonder he's an authority as he has a rare feat of having read most of the European literature in its original version. I was not able to relate to a few ideas but appreciated the list, the examples accompanying them and the insights he shared.

I liked how in the beginning he laid out a few things derived from Greek history and then proceeded to share his 20 lessons.

• Aristotle warned that inequality brought instability. 
• Plato believed demagogues exploited free speech to install themselves as tyrants.
• Fascism and communism were responses to globalization.

1. Do not obey in advance.

• People are remarkably receptive to new rules in a new setting.

2. Defend Institutions

• Mistake is to assume the rulers who came to power through institutions cannot change or destroy those very institutions.

3. Beware the one-party state

• Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.
• Americans certainly have the same danger which Ancient Greeks had oligarchy. The fact that donating money to political campaigns is acceptable is a big problem because it implies that the very rich can then have more say.

4. Take responsibility for the face of the world

• The small choices we make are a vote thus choosing to buy from a company that pays its workers poorly, adopts anti-labour practices is a vote in favor of such practices.
• Symbols of loyalty should include your fellow citizens rather than exclude them.

5. Remember Professional Ethics

• There is no such thing as "just following orders".

6. Be wary of paramilitaries

• In a democracy, it is kind of implicit that only the state can use violence/force legitimately. Because if others could also use it legitimately then there would be no peace.

7. Be reflective if you must be armed

8. Stand out

• People often blindly follow orders because they often do not want to stand out.

9. Be kind to our language

• Watching TV is like looking at someone who is also looking at a picture.
• Read books.

10. Investigate

• Support Print Journalism as the internet is full of quantity but lacks quality.
• It is odd that we pay for a plumber or a mechanic but demand our news for free.
• Journalism is hard.

11. Make eye-contact & small-talk

• Helps to know people you can trust.

12. Practice corporal politics.

• Make friends across stratas of society;
• Support their cause so if and when the need arises - they will consider supporting you.

13. Establish a private life.

• Use less internet
• Words written in one situation make sense only in that context.

14. Contribute to good causes

15. Learn from peers in other countries

16. Listen for dangerous words

17. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives

• Tyrants will use it to change the status quo
• Suspend rights and habeas-corpus.

18. Be a patriot.

• Nationalist -> encourages us to be our worst and then tells us we are the best.
• Patriot -> Wants us to be the best of ourselves.

19. Be as courageous as you can.

20. Believe in truth

 

And the Weak Suffer What They Must

To be honest this book was not even on my reading list. I had my eyes for "The Adults in The Room" - considered to be one of the Top 100 books of the 2010s decade by The Guardian. But it wasn't available in my library. And researching about the author made me aware about this book. 

Besides the provocative title, the subtitle said "Europe's crisis and America's future" which piqued my curiosity as someone who is interested in learning and understanding more about how economies work and specially in this case Europe - of which my knowledge is next to zero.

The book is well-written, easy-to-understand which is not a surprise because the author was a professor at UT Austin and was also Greek finance minister during the most turbulent times. After reading the book I was able to understand why the European Union is a bad idea but the real takeaways for me were the crystal clear understanding of three fundamental questions. 

• How deficits and trade surplus work?
• What does it mean to devalue a currency?
• How lowering interesting rates (or the financial jargon QE) are not granted to work always?

How Deficits Happen?

First this basic principle - One person's debt is another person's asset. Similarly, one nation's surplus is another nation's deficit. 

• In an asymmetrical world, the money that surplus economies amass from selling more stuff to the deficit economies than they buy from them - accumulates in their banks.
• The way banks make money is by lending. With this surplus in their vaults, they are tempted to lend much of it back to the deficit countries where interests rates are always higher [because money is scarce there and, to invite investment those countries resort to increasing their interest rates. Investors love higher rate of returns.]

For example -

• One French family buys a Volkswagen car (a German company).
  Now there is a trade imbalance. To set it right, one German family will have to buy a French car (why would they when German cars are better) or a French wine. Think about competitive advantage here.
• But suppose this balance doesn't happen to the same matching degree i.e a trade imbalance occurs. Surplus (Germany) - Deficit (France)
• Now as soon as the whiff of this gets to the markets, currency traders and speculators will bet on the Franc to be devalued by the IMF.
• They will bet by taking out loans in Paris (in Francs) and buying Deutsche marks and whenever, in future Francs get devalued - sell those Deutsche marks back, repay the loan and make handsome profit.
• Interesting thing is - unlike sporting/weather events the bets here make the event more likely.
• This is how -
  With every Franc borrowed by speculators to buy Deutsche marks it will push Franc's value down. Now there are two exchange rates for Franc - one official and, the other unofficial rate in the markets run by the speculators.
• To defend the official exchange rate, France's Central bank would have to step in using its reserves of Deutsche marks to buy Francs and soak the excess Francs in circulation.
• But now a game of chicken is on and who will blink first.
  If speculators persist - the reserves of Deutsche marks will eventually start to run out.
• Finally, Central Bank will have to call its minister and tell them that they can no longer afford any more French families buying Volkswagen cars. Please call IMF and arrange for the devaluation of Franc.
• The only thing that now stand between speculators and their victory is Bundesbank (German Central Bank). If it prints more Deutsche marks and asks it "chosen traders" to buy more Francs and soak up the excess Francs in circulation thus bringing its price down and burning the speculators.
• But Bundesbank will not like to print more Deutsche marks to defend an exchange rate designed by politicians. As now there will be more Deutsche marks in the system it will cause domestic prices to rise (inflation).
• So the story unravels from here on then.

How does Quantitative Easing (QE) work?

• The Central Bank buys from commercial banks other people's debts.
• In exchange of these debts - the Central Bank deposits dollars to an account the commercial bank keeps at the Central Bank.
• It is hoped that the banks will pass on these huge sums of money to businesses wishing to invest.
• If it happens, the economy rises as the liquidity rushes in.
  
  But for it to work, lots of things have to align. Like,
• Customers for eg. have to believe that the real estate market has bottomed out and their jobs are secure. Only if they feel so they will ask a bank for a loan.
• Bank must be willing to lend the money.
• Companies which employ people must believe that since banks are lending money - the demands for their products will increase.
• Often, even when banks have done their job (under a directive) - companies hesitate to invest more in their operations fearing that demand is not there. So, instead they just buy back their own shares which increases the stock price and get a nice bonus for the execs for supposedly increasing the stock price. Shares rise and everyone thinks all is well while behind the scenes economy is not doing well.
• Mind you, this is not what QE was intended for. These benefits were supposed to trickle down. And for these failures, "trickle down economics" is now not very liked.

I have read bunch of books, articles on these topics and watched lots of videos explaining these concepts but I found the explanation in this book to be the best!

Other than these fundamental explanations, the author also makes a case that European Union essentially favors only a select few countries, likening them to a cartel and run by bureaucrats having plush jobs and perks in Brussels. Inspite of having a Maastricht treaty to draw inspiration from with some shady maneuvering few countries got admitted to the E.U. Read this. 

Yanis does make a good point when he points out that E.U tends to overrule and impose conditions on sovereign countries and democratically elected govts' arm-twisting to do things they weren't elected to do.

Another, interesting argument he makes is that after the end of Bretton Woods era United States propped up E.U with Germany as one surplus country in Europe and Japan in Asia. The way he explains this is that the plan was to entice the surplus nations to send their surpluses to WallStreet by -
i) Pushing American interest rates higher

ii) Make WallStreet more lucrative than its equivalents in London, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris etc.

And recycling those surpluses.

The analogy of the Greek fable: Minotaur and King Minos was quite striking here.
WallStreet = Crete

Minotaur = US' trade deficit that kept devouring R.O.W's net exports and their industries running. With profits being sent to WallStreet as a tribute to Minotaur.

To add context, he was the Greek finance minister during a tumultuous period and he resigned when Greece was asked to follow severe austerity measures by the E.U. So he definitely knows the inner-workings of the E.U as he had a seat at the table and was right in the middle of it. He also gives a fascinating account of how the concept of European Union took shape and gives lots of anecdotes.

Overall, I picked this up not entirely sure what this is going to be like but I definitely enjoyed reading and learning a few things!

Leadership in Turbulent Times - Crying Need of The Hour

I had been meaning to read this book ever since I came across it and found it engrossing and a page-turner. Was able to finish it in a space of 3-4 days. The title is particularly captivating at first glance because you are reminded that there seems to be a huge void when you look for great leaders on the public sphere -no one comes close to the stature of four key men mentioned in this book. And they faced gigantic challenges and led and inspired the way out. So I definitely wanted to read and see what are those qualities that have gone missing over the period of time.

This book provides a great glimpse into the lives of arguably four of the Top 10 rankings presidents of the USA by public opinion. All of them had different upbringings, different challenges but all of them left an indelible mark on history. There are some common qualities among all four of them but then there are very contradicting qualities in all of them too. So it is very important to see and spot the pattern of what is it that helped shape them into the great leaders they turned out to be. 

The premise of this book is so captivating because it provides enough evidence to ponder over some classic questions like -

• Are leaders born or made?

• Where does ambition come from?

• How does adversity affect the growth of leadership?

• Do times shape the leader or the leader shape the times?
• Why some people are able to extract wisdom from experience? 

• While others in the face of adversity - they lose their bearing and their lives forever stunted?

Picked some of the sentences directly from the book as they were so well-written

Three of them on facing difficult times - withdrew themselves to some other place, activity where through reflection and adaptive capacity were able to transcend their ordeal armed with a greater resolve and purpose. (For Lincoln - it was law and study, Teddy Roosevelt - Badlands, FDR - Warm Spring Georgia where he recuperated and met others. LBJ is an exception).

Lincoln
Early Signs

• He likened his mind to -
  
  I am slow to learn and slow to forget that which I have learned. My mind is like a piece of steel, very hard to scratch any thing on it and almost impossible after you get it there to rub it out.
• Was extremely poor. Walked miles to borrow books to educate himself. 
• Affable by nature. Was easy for him to strike conversations and form relationships with people. Also indicates he had a high degree of EQ. He was the source of his friends’ entertainment and also the lone dissenting (contrarian) voice when such cases arose - wasn’t afraid to face their disapproval rather than abandon what was right.
• Crafted an intensive education for himself.

• Avid reader.

• Storytelling ability.

Adversity Struck

• Suffered a blow to his public reputation when his home state Illinois plunged into recession and all his pet projects were stalled.

• He valued his promises to the electorate very much.

How did he turn it around

• Turned around his bad phase by withdrawing from public life and focusing on law practice. And he started to read beyond the boundaries of law like - philosophy, astronomy, science, political economy, history, literature, poetry and drama.

• His pursuit of knowledge was directed towards understanding the role and purpose of leadership.

• Did deliberate practice of storytelling by soliloquizing

• Do we know what books he read?

Characteristics:

• Had an immense desire and ambition to inscribe his name on the book of communal memory. Wanted to emulate DeWitt Clinton. 

• Extremely good orator. Inspired conviction in others because of the conviction of the speaker in himself.

Teddy Roosevelt

Early Signs

• Roosevelt’s mind was "wax to receive and marble to retain. " Photogenic memory.

• Was born into a well-to-do family but was physically weak so father arranged for all sorts of tutors in any field he showed interest in like Taxidermy, German etc.

• Avid reader.

• As a biographer wrote - “The story of Theodore Roosevelt is the story of a small boy who read about great men and decided he wanted to be like them.”

• Widely read in all disciplines and well traveled at a young age.

• Lacked empathy, kindness. But very curious, zealous and focused.

• Storytelling ability.

• Took interest in politics from college when many of the peers stayed away.

Adversity Struck

• Lost his young wife and mother on the same day.

How did he turn it around

• Left for the Badlands and started to live among the cowboys adopting their lifestyle in order to become familiar with the hardships as he was born in a well-to-family

• Stayed there for two years - and made his body stronger (he was physically weak) and made himself mentally strong.

• Perseverance was the key!

Characteristics:

• Start with a bang - believed in starting a new venture with style

• Ask questions

• When attacked, counter-attack and stick to your point.

• Realized as a navy admiral - to keep space with the people he was supposed to command. It is the greatest possible mistake to seek popularity by showing weakness or mollycoddling with the men who then never respect a commander who does not enforce discipline.

• Used to endorse the African proverb “Speak softly and carry a big stick”

Franklin Roosevelt

Early Signs

• Lacked the physical strength of Lincoln and the torrential energy of Theodore. Was also born in a privileged class and an only child.

• Great temperament is what set him apart!

• Developed a desire to be the “nice child” so as to not trouble his sick father. This continued as he remained the “good student” in school earning him no friends.This tendency took shape in his adulthood as well where he learned to project optimism.

• Also was passionate towards his hobby of collecting stamps.

• Was interested in debating from the start.

• Had decided to follow the footsteps of Theodore Roosevelt while in his 20s
  

Adversity Struck

• Was struck by polio unaware.

How did he turn it around

• He had the tendency to project happiness and optimism even if he was sad, lonely inside right from his childhood so as to not worry his parents.
• Kept looking for alternative treatments for polio which at the time was not fully understood. (~1921)
• Had a very supportive wife and a friend (Louis Howe) who had tied his future to FDR’s political career. Wife continued to represent him in political circles cultivating his prospective political allies while he recuperated and the friend strategized his comeback. Warm Springs, Georgia  - was key to his revival. 
• He came to know about a spa in a ramshackle resort which had mineral water gushing from the nearby hillside at around 86 degrees. It was rumored to have therapeutic value and in his search for “alternative” treatment he wanted to try it out.
• He could feel improvement so he took over the place, invested his own personal fortune and built it into a resort where other specially abled people could come and recuperate too.
• He underwent a spiritual transformation developing a powerful new empathy enabling him to connect emotionally with all manners of people who fate had dealt an unkind blow.

Characteristics:

• Projected bright and happy mood even though deep down he was troubled. Good quality needed for a leader.
• Experimental i.e always open to trying out new things - common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all try something. With this same approach - he treated his illness and the Great Depression.

Lyndon Johnson:

• He was the only one out of the four who reacted negatively from the adversity - it magnified negative aspects of his nature. Later on a heart-attack helped him reshape his life's priorities.
• FDR was his mentor but he even repudiated his mentor’s landmark achievement (the New Deal) to achieve some political gain.
• He wasn’t a good public speaker so tried to balance it by “meaningful” one-to-one interactions.
• Indulged in some fishy maneuvering to win the Senatorial race which he himself had been at the receiving end of in 1948
• He had adopted the mantra of “getting ahead of the world by getting close to people who were head of things” aka kowtowing, pleasing people. Very calculating by nature.
• No hobbies. Didn’t know how to unwind.

Characteristics:

• Used to work himself to the ground. Was a hard taskmaster.
• Single-minded determination, enthusiasm, flattery