Zeihan's Eisenhower Naval Post Graduate School talk 5/28

• In next two months, crude oil supply from Russia goes offline.
• The oil pipelines out of Russia will either get broken accidentally or intentionally by Ukraine and because of the nature of the terrain (permafrost) - the pipeline would be out of service for decades. The moment liquid stops flowing through pipeline because of the conditions everything would be frozen in the pipeline. Big oil servicing companies like Schlumberger have exited Russia so there would be no company available to fix the pipelines.
• The only working lines out of Russia would be natural gas to Germany and Turkey (Nordstream 1 and Bluestream). Both countries would need that to keep the lights on and fight inflation specially Turkey which already has double digit inflation. This would result in security guarantees from these two countries to Russia to not help in Ukraine and breaking the NATO alliance
• Second largest wheat exporter has invaded fourth largest wheat exporter and destroying all the infrastructure. No wheat planted in Ukraine and shortage of wheat supply. Also, impacts rare earth metals supply, fertilizers and coal.
• Demographic challenges forcing Russia and China to expand
• Food insecurity in the next decade
• China’s premier (Xi) not getting full information, doesn’t have a brain trust as it’s a personality cult. *
• 2005-06 shale oil took off in U.S making it energy independent
• Henry Hub natural gas price chart - spikes due to hurricanes and Texas freeze. Price circa 2022 still way less than 50 year average.
  [Henry Hub is a a distribution hub on the natural gas pipeline system in Lousiana, U.S.]
  
  
  
  
  

• U.S will become more inward looking leaving the role of global policeman
• With America leaving the policing of the world - war would become a real possibility in Middle East (Saudi Arabia vs Iran).

Predictions made in the talk-

• U.S to reinstate oil export ban further cutting global supply
• Oil to touch $170/barrel by end of 2022
• Big risk to E.U alliance by Germany and Turkey in terms of energy independence from Russia